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NATaT Weekly Legislative Report
October 6, 2025
Congressional Outlook
Today marks Day 6 of a government shutdown, during which the Congressional Budget Office estimates the furlough of more than 750,000 federal government employees nationwide, with many more working without pay, as Republican and Democratic lawmakers attempt to place the blame for the shutdown on each other. The Senate is in session this week, while the House will not return until after the Senate takes action on its version of a continuing resolution (CR) to fund the government through November 21. The next day the House is scheduled to return to Washington is October 14.
Even as lawmakers and the White House begin to feel pressure from Americans affected by the shutdown, decision-makers seem unwilling to budge in negotiations. As the Senate returns to Washington, lawmakers return to vote on advancing two competing funding bills with little prospect of meeting the 60-vote threshold. So far, the Senate has failed to advance both proposals four times before leaving town last week. The bills include: the House-passed, Republican-led Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2026 (H.R. 5371), which the House passed on September 19 by a vote of 217-212, a CR funding the government through November 21, including extensions to the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program; and the Senate Democrats’ alternative CR, the Continuing Appropriations and Extensions and Other Matters Act, 2026 (S. 2882), which funds the entirety of the federal government through October 31 at enacted FY 2025 funding levels and also includes the repeal of Medicaid cuts through the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), the permanent extension of Affordable Care Act (ACA) premium tax credits, and blocking the Trump administration from using “pocket recissions,” among other items that are non-starters for Republicans. The Republican proposal failed to advance by a vote of 55-45 on Friday, with Democratic Senators Catherine Cortez-Masto (D-Nev.), John Fetterman (D-Pa.), and Angus King (I-Maine) voting in favor of the legislation, while Republican Senator Rand Paul (R-Ky.) voted against the bill. The Democratic proposal failed 47-53 along party lines. If Senator Paul continues to vote no on a CR, as he has maintained throughout his time in the Senate, Republicans will need to gain five more Democratic votes to pass the 60-vote cloture motion threshold. For various reasons, there are reports of Republicans hoping to flip votes of the following Democratic Senators to pass the House-passed CR: Sens. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.), Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), and Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.). Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) plans to vote a fifth time on Monday evening on advancing both proposals.
The main sticking point, as previously mentioned in last week’s TFG Legislative Update, is the Democrats' demand for an extension of the ACA premium tax credits, which expire on December 31, 2025. The parties are at an impasse in terms of finding common ground to move forward, with some federal workers scheduled to miss their first paycheck as early as this Friday, according to the General Services Administration. The challenge is that Republicans have little incentive to budge, and Democrats are using this moment to bring the issue to the forefront, as they may not have another opportunity to negotiate this healthcare-related issue. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) will need to remain mindful of his fellow Democratic members representing states with a high population of federal employees. Many believe that the pressure will continue to rise and are citing October 15 as a key date since that is when members of the military will miss their first paycheck in the event the government is still shutdown.
The House will continue to remain in recess according to Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-La.), who recently held a press conference outlining his perspective on the government shutdown and placing the blame on the shoulders of Democrats, saying “the House did its job.” The Speaker’s position and that of Republicans is that the lower chamber and House Republicans did their job by passing their version of the CR. They believe it is on Senate Democrats to accept the short-term CR to reopen the government and return to negotiations over many of the health care provisions in the coming weeks. Democrats are unwilling to vote for a CR that does not include an extension of the ACA premium tax credits.
In the event that negotiations fail to make progress toward a resolution, the Trump administration will consider federal government layoffs. Director of the National Economic Council (NEC), Kevin Hassett, said that the decision rests on the President and his gauge of where discussions are, and if the determination is made that little to no progress has been made, the administration will begin layoffs.
In addition to the votes on Republican and Democratic CR proposals, the Senate may also vote on the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026 (S. 2296), which authorizes the budget, polices, and priorities for the Department of Defense for FY 2026. The Senate will continue its en bloc votes on 108 nominations from the Trump administration. The Senate this week could also consider a joint resolution (S.J. Res. 71) that would terminate President Trump’s national emergency declaration with respect to energy, in addition to a measure (S. J. Res. 83) introduced last month to block the use of armed forces against foreign terrorist organizations without approval, after the initial strikes on Venezuelan boats.
Week in Review
Senate fails again to advance funding bill, shutdown likely to extend into next week
House will stay out of session next week as Senate works to solve shutdown
In unusual move, FEMA halts preparedness grant money, orders states to recount their populations excluding deported migrants
Trump administration cancels nearly $8 billion in climate funding to blue states: Vought
Johnson gives ‘assurance’ to top Senate Dem he’ll move government funding bills